‘Coal Vision 2030’ forecasts demand at 900-1,000 mtpa by 2020
A forward-looking document floated by Coal India Ltd pegs coal demand at 900-1,000 mtpa by 2020, an estimate that might not be favourable for the mining behemoths ambitious production targets.
The state-run miner aims to produce 1,000 million ton per annum of coal by fiscal 2020.
According to the Coal Vision 2030, 33 per cent of the capacity is at risk of delay and hence, coal production in the short-term in FY20-22 is estimated to be 1,050 mtpa.
Coal demand is projected to rise to 1,300-1,900 mtpa by 2030, of which thermal coal is likely to be 1,150-1,750 mtpa.
The document, prepared by consultant KPMG, also forecast a lower CAGR of just three per cent against six per cent growth achieved in the last five years.
The report, seeking stakeholders comments, said based on the current status of the captive/ commercial blocks, it is estimated their contribution to the overall production could be 90-170 mtpa by the fiscal year 2019-20.
Around 100 blocks for captive/commercial use has been allocated or auctioned so far.
It was not immediately known whether the world’s largest miner will consider revising its production target downward, based on the vision document.
In the current fiscal, CIL has missed its production target of 600 mtpa by 29.2 mtpa till January this year.
The document, however, remained upbeat about the demand for coal as a source of primary energy.
“Even in the most adverse scenario, as of Q2 FY17, it appears that the demand for coal in India, as a source of primary energy shall expand until 2030 and perhaps beyond,” the report said.
The vision document said lower price predictions for imported coal may drive imports to 200 mtpa by 2030.
Explaining the import estimates, it pointed out that most analysts expect Australian coal prices to soften to USD 60 per ton by FY30, and the corresponding price for Indonesian Ecocoal to USD 30?40 per ton (on the basis of the historical gap between high grade and medium grade coal).
Renewables will have an impact on the fossil fuel- based power generation, as huge capacities are being planned, the Coal Vision 2030 said, adding, no new coal mines need to be allocated or auctioned beyond the current pipeline.